Did you hear the joke about the depressed housing market? It had a foundation problem. If it wasn't so true it would be funny.
Once upon a time, we had 'lots' to be thankful for. Not anymore. Like most of Australia, the Central West and Orana regions of New South Wales are grappling with a severe housing crisis and depressed housing market, marked by skyrocketing rents, dwindling rental vacancies, less construction, an increase in immigration, and a significant decline in affordable housing.
Over recent decades, median rents across the Central West and Orana have seen substantial increases. Between 2017 and 2022, some areas experienced dramatic rent hikes like Blayney, that saw rents soar by nearly 70%, while Cowra's rents increased by 22.4%. The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused some rent decreases, notably in Dubbo and Lithgow. However, these declines were short-lived, and by 2022, rent increases had resumed across much of the region.
A key factor exacerbating the crisis is the persistently low vacancy rates. Since May 2020, the Central West has consistently reported vacancy rates below 2%, with similar trends in Orana. As of March 2023, both regions had a vacancy rate of just 1.7%, reflecting a severe shortage of available rental properties. This tight market is contributing to increased competition and stress for renters, many of whom are struggling to find affordable accommodation.
For new Forbes resident Larissa Boyle, a single mother to a young daughter, renting in the Central West of NSW has been a nightmare.
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"I came over here for work after working in the disability sector in Queensland and South Australia," she said.
"My partner had left and joined a religious cult during COVID and left our daughter and I to fend for ourselves.
"Initially Forbes was great, I had work and temporary accommodation even if it was the refuge," said Larissa.
But it didn't last long sadly.
"After being allowed to move into Hilda Street Women's Refuge in May this year, I was forcibly removed last week because I complained about things going on there.
"Now I am in Havannah House waiting to hear back from real estate agents and agencies about a new home as well as responses from the numerous jobs I have applied for," she said.
"Because I am not from here and don't know anyone or have any family it has been hard to get people to help me. I was offered a run down house in a bad part of Cowra but couldn't accept it as I am set up here in Forbes and waiting on work here.
Larissa's story is one of many with families in the Central West resorting to sleeping in cars and tents due to the lack of housing.
"I would be really grateful if someone could help my daughter and I as we are getting desperate!"
The proportion of affordable rental properties has sharply declined, mirroring a broader trend observed across NSW. Affordable housing for very low income households (those spending less than 30% of their income on rent) has diminished significantly. For instance, between 2021 and 2022, Orange and Mid-Western Regional were among the LGAs with the lowest affordability rates, falling below the NSW average. Conversely, Blayney and Forbes saw some improvement in rental affordability, although the overall trend remains troubling especially for Larissa who has seen no change in the five months she has been in Forbes.
"We have been priced out on every rental," she said.
"Alternatives I have been offered include see the local Bishop and stay in my car.
"Is this where we are at in Australia in 2024?"
Apparently yes.
In addition to the decline in affordable rentals, the number of new bonds lodged for affordable rental properties has plummeted. The region lost 2,721 affordable bonds between 2017 and 2022, representing a staggering 71% reduction in affordable rental stock. Orange, Bathurst Regional, Dubbo Regional, and Lithgow have been particularly affected, with some LGAs like Blayney and Bogan seeing a total loss of affordable rental options.
The rise of short-term holiday rentals, particularly through platforms like Airbnb, has further complicated the housing market. A study by the University of Sydney's Urban Housing Lab highlighted that short-term rental listings have surged, with areas such as Kiama and Byron Bay experiencing significant increases. The expansion of these rentals often means fewer properties are available for long-term tenants, contributing to higher rental prices and reduced availability of affordable housing.
Rental stress is a significant issue, with many low-income households spending over 30% of their income on rent. Between 2016 and 2021, rental stress among very low income households in the Central West and Orana increased by 3.1%, compared to 2.4% across NSW. For low-income households, the increase in rental stress was even more pronounced at 10.8%. In some areas, such as Orange and Lithgow, rental stress levels exceed the NSW average.
The housing market is also making homeownership increasingly inaccessible. Some experts now say that owning a home in Australia is "a preserve of the rich." Facts seem to support the argument.
Rising property prices and stagnant wages are making it difficult for lower-income individuals and families to afford homes, leading to heightened purchase stress. Although the Central West and Orana regions have seen varying rates of affordability and stress, the overall trend indicates a worsening situation for potential homeowners.
Addressing the housing crisis in the Central West and Orana requires urgent action. Solutions must focus on increasing the supply of affordable housing, regulating short-term rentals, and supporting low-income households who are disproportionately affected. At present, too few own too much and draconian legislation from a succession of governments allows them to get away with it. Without significant intervention, the housing market challenges are likely to continue escalating, impacting the region's economic stability and the well-being of its residents.
For now, the Central West and Orana face a critical juncture, where understanding and addressing these complex housing dynamics will be crucial to creating a more equitable and sustainable future for all. For people like Larissa and her daughter.
"I have never been so stressed and so lost," she said.
"You think it will never happen to you and that people are going to help you but they don't. They kick the can down the road for the next person and the next.
"Australia - the lucky country for some!"
Do you have rental or housing affordability stress? We'd like to hear your story! For emergency housing go to - If you need emergency housing accommodation | NSW Government
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